Debate exists whether Democrats want Romney to run against Obama because Obama would beat him, or whether the polls are right that Romney would eke out a victory over Obama. A lot of very pro-Obama supporters are suddenly coming out of the woodwork to support Romney.

Joe Biden hisself, for example, defended Romney’s firing comment and said to read the whole thing in context (as Romney’s comment did indeed make sense). Liberal pundits and sages are offering a lot of praise to Romney. Suspicious minds think that this is because they need Republicans to vote for him, since in their mind Obama can defeat him easier than any other candidate.

The Czar is not sure, but offers a third, weird (but unlikely possibility): the Democrats fear the poll numbers, and want us to think they want Romney in position. There is a small chance that by subtly endorsing Romney, Republican voters will divide their votes. Goofy, sure, but (a) it explains their reaction to the poll numbers, (b) it explains the mixed messages from liberal media commentators (not all are on board), and (c) God knows they have tried goofier strategies.

Any of the three is possible, and no one explanation is more likely than the other.

The Czar is confident of one thing, though: the Obama administration is very much disappointed by the poll numbers.

These endless polls seem to show that Obama can win, but within the error of margin; or they show that Obama loses outside of the error of margin. Yeah, they are close, but one other fact remains.

There still isn’t a single GOP candidate. You all know how you kinda liked Herman Cain, and you kinda liked Rick Perry, and you kinda liked Newt Gingrich for a while. Most of you, it seems by our emails, kinda like Mitt Romney, but you really don’t want to commit to him just yet. Maybe someone better will rise up and stay up there (Santorum?), or maybe someone vastly better will announce his or her candidacy by the end of February.

This wishy-washy reaction to our wishy-washy candidates shows up in the poll numbers. Rassmussen has noticed this by asking a new question: would you support Mitt Romney if no one else was running? Yeah, then his numbers climb up fast, even though don’t know remains very high as well.

This is all more proof of the Czar’s point—and the Obama team knows it—when the GOP does select a single candidate for Republicans to rally around, these close polls will end and you will see a definite slide toward the GOP in the polls.

But Czar, you wisely ask, don’t other recent polls show that Democrats are edging out Republican voters? Yes, and the liberal media wing is flapping about that, but these polls also show two other things: that independents remain high but are strongly tilting Republican (based on opinions about the country’s performance, rather than whether they think Obama is a socialist or not), and that when likely voters (as opposed to people who simply identify with a party but tend not to vote) are weighed, guess what happens?

A landslide Republican victory is probably unlikely. An Obama defeat is not assured, either. But certainly the Obama re-election team cannot be looking at these poll numbers with any real joy. They have their candidate and about one billion bucks in the bag to spend, and they still are merely tying with Mitt Romney—who has way less than half the votes from his own party.

And how do you feel knowing that Ron Paul is in a statistical tie with you as well? This underscores something Andy McCarthy said: as bad as the GOP candidates can be, look at who the Democrats are running. Whom do you think loses more sleep?

The Czar of Muscovy

Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. The Czar was born in the steppes of Russia in 1267, and was cheated out of total control of all Russia upon the death of Boris Mikhailovich, who replaced Alexander Yaroslav Nevsky in 1263. However, in 1283, our Czar was passed over due to a clerical error and the rule of all Russia went to his second cousin Daniil (Даниил Александрович), whom Czar still resents. As a half-hearted apology, the Czar was awarded control over Muscovy, inconveniently located 5,000 miles away just outside Chicago. He now spends his time seething about this and writing about other stuff that bothers him.