Hello, children. Hello.

Your Mandarin and the Czar were conversing a some days prior to the election when the Czar expressed concern regarding now President-Elect Trump’s poll numbers.  Your Mandarin being all knowing, and with the help of some crude but sophisticated high powered computing devices – here’s a shout-out to the makers of the Magic 8 Ball – your Mandarin was able to predict that Trump would defy the polls and win.  And being the inscrutable scientist that your Mandarin is, and sometimes having his doubts about the reliability of said Magic 8 Ball – it once got stuck between Answer unclear, ask again later and Yes when questioned about an odd growth on ‘Puter’s back* – I directed the Czar’s attention to the following:

1. The numbers of people attending the Trump/Pence rallies compared to the Clinton/Kaine rallies.  This really showed the enthusiasm gap between the two campaigns.
2. Building on point 1 above, the attendance at the Trump/Pence rallies was due to the fact that voters felt a personal connection to Trump, and that he really understood their issues and wanted to help.
3. The pollsters, whether intentionally or unintentionally, ask questions that are skewed to elicit a response that serves as confirmation of their biases toward a particular candidate.
4. In addition, Trump supporters were tired of being labeled as racists and you-name-the-phobe because they supported his campaign.  While there were some crack-pot alt-right types that threw their support behind Trump, the overall majority of his supporters were average Americans looking for a voice and someone that did more than pay lip service to their issues, only to be forgotten once their votes were cast.  This would lead many of them to either not answer the pollster at all, or give the answer that they thought was least likely to get them tarred with the racist label.**
5. The Hillary campaign and the media were so intertwined and the collusion so evident, that voters again felt that they were being corralled into voting for Hillary.  And for good measure you can throw in the deplorables comment, that demonstrated for all to see the contempt for the average American by Hillary and the press.

 

A perfect parallel for this was Brexit, in which the Brexiters were enthusiastic and motivated, the polls skewed based on confirmation bias, the antiestablishment folks tired of being taken for granted, and the arrogant media completely in the bag for the liberal preference. Once I saw the parallel, I realized the Trump would not only win but win by a substantial margin.

Don’t seem so surprised. I’m really that good.

* Both turned out to be correct.
** Volgi refers to this as the Bradley Effect, but of course your Mandarin thought of it first.

The Mandarin

The Mandarin, whose real name is 吏恆, joined the order in 1309, and introduced the Gormogons into England during the 18th Century.

The Mandarin enjoys spending time with his pet manticore, Βάρἰκος, or Barry (who can be found in the Bestiary). When not in the Castle…well, frankly, nobody is quite sure where he goes.

The Mandarin popularized the fine art of “gut booting,” by which he delivers a powerful kick to the stomach of anyone that annoys him. Although nearly universal today, the act of gut booting or threatening someone or something with a gut boot is solely due to him.