Despite numerous assurances that the Democrats would never risk such a stunt, there is every appearance that they will attempt to pass portions of the healthcare mess through a procedure called reconciliation.

You will see this word quite often in the next couple of weeks, and the Czar thought he better define it in easy-to-digest terms, because God knows the news media can’t do it. We have left a lot of procedural back-and-forth crap out, because you are interested more in the upshot than the rules of order here.

Reconciliation is actually a financial term, not a bipartisan one. So the process is related to—and is basically limited to—money.

It all starts with a filibuster. A filibuster, as you know, is when one side (usually and understandably the minority party) talks and talks and talks in the Senate for the sole purpose of wasting time. Since there is no time limit in the Senate, a minority senator can talk literally for days—without yielding the floor—to stall a vote on any bill they don’t like. That was the whole value in getting Scott Brown elected: the Republicans now have enough members to start a filibuster. If the Democrats attempt to vote on anything the Republicans dislike (such as healthcare), the Republicans can talk and talk and talk until Democratic senators start going home and there are no longer enough in the room left to vote in favor. Then, the speaker yields the floor to another Republican, who repeats the process until the Democrats agree to give it up. The idea is that it allows a minority party the ability to check a power mad majority.

This is great for all sorts of things, such as goofy laws that make no sense or difference. But when money gets involved, this can be really bad. Imagine if the Congress badly needed to fund a war after an emergency attack on the US. The minority party could filibuster and delay funding. For a less terrifying example, say that you were introducing legislation that would fund pre-school lunches for the next two years as an extension of an existing lunch program. A filibuster against you could ultimately result in a suspension of payments for any lunches at all: you basically would miss the deadline for the Federal budget. Even if the vote went in your favor, the lunch program might not be reinstated after the fact because it missed being included. And if it does get reinstated, it was never budgeted—and so adds to the deficit.

To prevent the minority party from screwing with the Federal budget (which would either swell the deficit, jerk the taxpayers around, or both), the Senate came up with reconciliation. This process allows the majority party to at least vote—right now, with no filibustering—on the money portion of a bill. Only 51 votes are required, so a filibuster is not needed; a simple majority will do. At least it gets the money flowing and into the next budget. The rest of the bill, which covers the official name, definitions, specific regulation or tax code references, and so on…that all can wait until the filibuster ends or the next election changes the parties around. But at least we got the money going; we can argue the final amount (ideally reducing it) and other pokey stuff later.

This way, we can reconcile the federal budget the way you’re supposed to reconcile your checkbook at the end of each month.

So here is how this affects the healthcare bill. It’s pretty clear to everyone that the Republicans will filibuster any Senate vote on the bill. So, even though they said they wouldn’t, the Democrats want to use reconciliation to pass the financial portions of it.

The conference report is raced to the President so that he can sign it before he signs the reconciliation bill…thereby passing the entire healthcare act in two separate bills.Bear in mind that this is their right, and it’s a valid one. The GOP used reconciliation dozens of times against the Democrats, so it would be hypocrisy to cry foul. Also, bear in mind that reconciliation can be a mixed bag.

Yes, it can swell our deficit, raise taxes to pay for the healthcare money, and start all sorts of unwanted processes going. That’s bad. But reconciliation cannot pass the entire bill. It can only pass the financial aspects of it that affect the budget, taxes, or the deficit. Believe it or not, that’s only a minority of the whole healthcare packaged concept. Special review boards can be funded under reconciliation, but they cannot be staffed, which means the money never gets paid out. Funding to create insurance policy trading markets can be approved, but the ways and means to create those markets cannot happen. All that stuff has to be figured out later. Maybe never.

In other words, the money can be collected and so on, but that does not mean that healthcare got passed. As a result, the bill as is cannot be passed—it has to be taken apart into its various pieces and parts to extract the financial elements.

So here is the trick the Democrats are discussing: calling for reconciliation results in the appointment of a committee to put together a single bill containing just the financial aspects. This reconciliation bill cannot be filibustered according to the rules, so it gets approved (nicknamed the “up or down vote” you’re hearing about) and goes eventually to the President for signature, which in this case Obama would sign immediately. But before he signs it, the Democrats in the Senate and House of Representatives can form a special committee to negotiate the difference between the House healthcare bill, the Senate healthcare bill, and the Reconciliation bill to produce a compromised piece of legislation called a conference report. The committee can then present the conference report before both Houses for a vote. Only a simple majority needs to pass a conference report, and debate is limited to 10 hours on a conference report—making it filibuster proof.

The approved conference report is raced to the President so that he can sign it before he signs the reconciliation bill…thereby passing the entire healthcare act in two separate bills.

Tricky, eh? But not so fast. Two problems exist with this.

First, the GOP can nitpick the hell out of the reconciliation bill. There are numerous stipulations (named after Robert Byrd, who long ago saw the need to check this process if the GOP ever used it against the Democrats…cough cough…hoist and petard, etc.). The GOP can line-by-line dispute the reconciliation provisions and question whether or not they have a valid and immediate need for the impending budget year. This can boat-anchor complex financial legislation: keeping in mind that reconciliation is supposed to be an emergency funding issue with limited scope. Trying to push through a massive, trillion-dollar piece of legislation with reconciliation has never been attempted. The GOP retains the right under the Byrd Rule to examine every piece of hay to see if it might contain a needle. This right can be overturned with a 3/5ths vote, which no longer exists for the Democrats in the Senate. Oops. So expect the GOP to skewer this thing.

Second, the conference report is likely going to produce the same car wreck that the Democrats produced already. The initial House and Senate conference reports are likely going to contradict each other just as badly as the original healthcare bill versions did. Also, even if a committee manages to merge those versions together, Blue Dog democrats seeing the inclusion of unpopular pork elements or public options or abortion coverage will join Republicans in calling for a no-vote. Good luck with getting a final conference report both Houses like.

Can it work to pass healthcare? Absolutely, so you should be concerned. Is it a slam-dunk? No. Actually, it will be more like a shot taken at the buzzer from half-court. Could go in, but is more likely to bounce off the backboard.

The Czar of Muscovy

Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. The Czar was born in the steppes of Russia in 1267, and was cheated out of total control of all Russia upon the death of Boris Mikhailovich, who replaced Alexander Yaroslav Nevsky in 1263. However, in 1283, our Czar was passed over due to a clerical error and the rule of all Russia went to his second cousin Daniil (Даниил Александрович), whom Czar still resents. As a half-hearted apology, the Czar was awarded control over Muscovy, inconveniently located 5,000 miles away just outside Chicago. He now spends his time seething about this and writing about other stuff that bothers him.