The Czar wishes not to micturate in your Volgi’s cornflakes, but the amazing ability to predict a homerun on a 3-1 count for a particular batter to a particular spot is not always impossible if you have good stats on the pitcher.

While enjoyable and precise, the clip does not emphasize the painful level of statistical bookkeeping (a word the Czar likes because it has three pairs of letters in a row, matched only by the near-word balloonneck) in baseball.

When a batter fresh out of the minors shows a propensity for hitting dingers on low inside pitches (his hot zone) especially on a 3-1 count, and you know you are facing a pitcher who like to throw low and inside when his ball count is high, you can predict a homerun. And if you look at your batter’s scatter chart, you can see where he tends to hit pitches like that with the highest probability.

Incredible? Perhaps. Funny? Very. Impossible? Not at all.

For those not deep into baseball, all those weird little delays you see between pitches, when the batter steps out of the box, grips his bat, spits, and grabs himself? He is looking back to the dugout or his coach to find out what to do. He does not need to know what to do: he merely gets a sign like swing, stay, bunt, or feint. It’s the dude in the box who pours over that thick binder you see which states what the pitcher is most likely to do in this count, and then cross-references what the batter should do based on his own stats. Then the sign is given to the batter.

Of course, in theory, the other team is relaying signs to the catcher, telling him make sure he does not throw anything low and inside, which the catcher does. But telling a pitcher (who are all basket cases of superstitious nonsense) what to do is like telling an obsessive compulsive to try something different. Good luck. And you see the result.

Our astonishing prediction is likely more a case of a pitcher not obeying his catcher.

The Czar of Muscovy

Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. The Czar was born in the steppes of Russia in 1267, and was cheated out of total control of all Russia upon the death of Boris Mikhailovich, who replaced Alexander Yaroslav Nevsky in 1263. However, in 1283, our Czar was passed over due to a clerical error and the rule of all Russia went to his second cousin Daniil (Даниил Александрович), whom Czar still resents. As a half-hearted apology, the Czar was awarded control over Muscovy, inconveniently located 5,000 miles away just outside Chicago. He now spends his time seething about this and writing about other stuff that bothers him.