Pashtun Awakening, possible or not?

So Fred Kaplan here (via Shmuel Rosner) is saying that there’s no sign of the necessary preconditions for a Pashtun Awakening or the like that would allow an Afghanistan surge to succeed.

I find this curious, because just last night your Volgi was reading this article thinking, “Hmm, if this is true and widespread enough, this could be turned into a Pashtun Awakening.”

You make the call.