You might have missed this, what with news that Lindsay Lohan is having trouble with Playboy and Justin Beiber and Herman Cain finding themselves in a very strange situation, but if you read way down to the bottom you might notice that we might be, heh heh, on the goddamn brink of war with Iran.
Anyway, this is hardly an exaggeration. Both military, political, and diplomatic chatter has rapidly increased between the US, the UK, and Israel about Iran. President Obama and PM Cameron have been in contact about coordinating military action, PM Netenyahu is building cabinet support for readying the military, and Iran has announced it has taken preparations for a joint attack against it from the three aforementioned powers.
There are three scenarios:
- This is all because it is true. There are prudent reasons to attack Iran:
- The Obama administration knows Iran is never going to capitulate as he had hoped, and knows Iranians are very close to testing a nuclear launch vehicle.
- With the reduction of forces in Iraq, Iraq is very much vulnerable to lethal Iranian interference that could totally undermine his removal of forces shortly
- The time is right:
- Militarilywe have freed or shall soon free up considerable forces and resources that could swing over to Iran with valuable experience and testing
- PoliticallyObama has tanked in the polls and is eager for a big bump in approval
- Diplomaticallyrumors abound of the Green Revolution being ready to assist internally (provided they still trust us, which they shouldnt), as well as a serious divide between Ahmadî-Nezhâd and the mullahs that could be pushed into total paralysis.
- This is all because it is false. Iranians do not like to call someone on a bluff. Despite so-called pressure from the Carter administration, Iranians never came close to releasing their hostages until Reagan was inauguratedbecause they knew Reagan would probably topple them. Our hostages were released without a shot fired. If the Iranians had sufficient reason to consider the possibility that they would wind up like their Libyan counterparts (at the hands of Israelis, no less), they might completely abort their nuclear program. This is very possible only because it is very plausible. Obama would be smart to leverage Libya as an example, and get Iran to cave without a single plane leaving the ground.
- Israel is going to do it anyway, and we better step up to help them before things get worse. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Turkey are less likely to go nuts if they think the US is in charge. This is possible because Israel faces a genuine existential threatIran is developing nuclear weapons for one reason only: total extermination of Israel. Nothing less than a complete glassing. Iran knows full well that a large Arab population comfortably co-exists in Israel, and that a huge amount of pro-Iranian Palestinians uncomfortably compete inside Israeli borders, all of whom would be exterminated. But only a fool thinks Iran, with a chilling ability to kill even Persians without a seconds hesitation, would give a crap about that. After all, Iran hates Arabs about fourth on its list, after Jews, Americans, and British. Israel cannot wait for Obama to sing Qombaya with Tehran: they need to act very soon if they even want to live.
No matter which is the case, the United States faces some challenges here:
- What is our exit strategy? Are only interested in stopping the nuke program? This will be difficult, because the nuclear program is being run out of Qom.
- Qoms facilities are well protected, deep underground, and a straightforward ground assault will be costly.
- Qom is covered in sacred sites, and is especially dear to Shiites around the world due to its importance as a religious education and social center. This makes it difficult to assault by air or sea.
- Qom nothing: there are at least 17 other sites that would need to be taken out almost simultaneously.
- If so, a strike might be merely a temporary setback. The best option, which America historically hates to do, is to topple the government entirely. And that, history has shown us, requires a tremendous investment in time, manpower, and money that Americans traditionally avoid. We still have troops in Germany, after all. When we have short-timer syndrome, like we did with Germany in 1918, Korea in 1954, Việt Nam in 1972, and Iraq in 1991, worse things result. Do Americans have the stomach for an Iranian conflict?
- When do we do it? The Daily Mail supports the Czars opinion that Obama would be loathe to do it so soon before an election, because a quick resolution will probably not be enough to sustain his support at election time; a lengthy conflict will be fertile ground for Republicans to plant anti-war seeds.
- And we have Russia and China to deal with. The President has already been in contact with France and Turkey, both of whom desire to see a change in Iran. But Russia and China have enormous investments in Iran, and while they would profit enormously from a new regime in Iran, they will not desire to see Americans and British sharing those profits as happened in Iraq. Ultimately, of course, both Russia and China know that they have little power to stop a coalition; they couldnt do it in Baghdad in 2003; they stand little chance with the rest of the world hating Iran.
A military action in Iran is just about inevitable; but how much, and when, are still tough questions to solve. Let us hope our President gets this right: as both Carter and Reagan proved, Iran is not prone to second-chance opportunities.
Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. The Czar was born in the steppes of Russia in 1267, and was cheated out of total control of all Russia upon the death of Boris Mikhailovich, who replaced Alexander Yaroslav Nevsky in 1263. However, in 1283, our Czar was passed over due to a clerical error and the rule of all Russia went to his second cousin Daniil (Даниил Александрович), whom Czar still resents. As a half-hearted apology, the Czar was awarded control over Muscovy, inconveniently located 5,000 miles away just outside Chicago. He now spends his time seething about this and writing about other stuff that bothers him.