Wow, its a really bad time to be President Obama, what with all these crazy decisions he made over the last three years coming back to bite him bad. He insisted that he could somehow make Iran break into a smile by making funny faces at them. He downsized the military. And of course he pissed off Israel several times, although he denies it.
The President is in a really bad spot right now, and he knows it.
We now have solid evidence that Iran tested a neutron trigger out in the desert, which is used only in nuclear weapons. Israel knows that Iran would like nothing more than to test a few more of these all over Israel. Strapped to nukes.
But Obama knows if he does nothing to help Israel, he loses the Jewish vote and with it, Florida and New York. Why do you think he has been cozying up to Netanyahu lately? He knows that losing any more of the Jewish vote will give Romney the clear edge he needs to win.
And for sure he knows if Israel pre-emptively attacks Iran, gas prices will skyrocket throughout Spring, Summer, and into Fall. He will lose the moderate vote over dollar per gallon, 52% of whom already doesnt like him. If loses the moderates, even Ron Paul could win.
So if Obama helps Israelthey presently have requested long-range fueling tankers from us and advanced weaponry to take out deep underground facilitiesthey have a green light to strike Iran, since it is clear that Iran is only weeks away from an actual nuclear test.
Help Israel now, and you lose the election when gas prices skyrocket. Abandon Israel, and you lose just enough voters to give Republicans a win. On the other hand, the only way out of this mess is to delay Israel as much as possible, maybe until after November; indeed, this explains the platitudes toward Israeli-American solidarity, and us taking our sweet time in giving Israel the military aid they requested. If they attack Iran after the election, well who gives a fig? Let gas prices shoot up, and screw the Jewish voters: Obama has his four additional years.
So here is where Israel is. The President is reluctant to help them before the election, because gas prices go up; although, in the interests of self-preservation, he would lend a hand if forced to by an Israeli attack because he needs Jewish votes, too. Obama certainly wont help them after the election, given his traditional animosity toward Israel and lack of incentive, although Israel will suffer tremendous losses without American aid.
Additionally, Israel knows that the reason American has not intervened in Syria is because we no longer have a strong enough military to take on adventures in Iran and Syria. But pressure is mounting on America to send forced into Syria, and if we do, we might not be able to help Israel effectively.
What, if you were Israel, would you do?
You might be inclined to attack Iran before the election, and basically screw the President. Israel can no longer afford to wait, although they are giving Obama some time to try his sanctioning experiment. But each day Israel waits, two things happen: Iran gets closer to nuclear weapons, and the worse the effect will be on Obama in November.
This, by the way, is not merely theoretical. These are assessments going on right now in foreign policy circles, and all but one end in a position very bad for a president going into a close election.
That one solution is of course for the sanctions to work some special magic, for the Iranian people to rise up, take to the streets, and oust their suicidal theocrats. Except that was one more bad call Obama made that is now going to bite him. The Iranian people know that under Obama, no real aid will ever be coming.
Consequences. And despite all the posturing by Messrs. Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul, the really effective election opponent might turn out to be Israel.