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Looking at Rasmussen’s state-by-state polling (which is not yet up-to-date), and looking at Real Clear Politics’ averages (which too often include whackadoo outliers that throw off the averages), we are seeing some similarities.
Also, there are a bunch of toss up states, but some trends are developing. If we award to Obama all the states that are trending his way, and award all the states that are trending to Romney, you are still left with Iowa. Iowa is basically at a tie right now. Let us award Iowa to Obama, because we are charitable.
Assuming that the news updates are correct—that Obama is losing Ohio fast (you may yourself have heard that the Obama campaign is starting to look at ways to win without Ohio), the votes might tally up like this:
State | Votes | Romney | Obama |
Alabama | 9 | 9 | |
Alaska | 3 | 3 | |
Arizona | 11 | 11 | |
Arkansas | 6 | 6 | |
California | 55 | 55 | |
Colorado | 9 | 9 | |
Connecticut | 7 | 7 | |
Delaware | 3 | 3 | |
Florida | 29 | 29 | |
Georgia | 16 | 16 | |
Hawaii | 4 | 4 | |
Idaho | 4 | 4 | |
Illinois | 20 | 20 | |
Indiana | 11 | 11 | |
Iowa* | 6 | 6 | |
Kansas | 6 | 6 | |
Kentucky | 8 | 8 | |
Louisiana | 8 | 8 | |
Maine | 4 | 4 | |
Maryland | 10 | 10 | |
Massachusetts | 11 | 11 | |
Michigan | 16 | 16 | |
Minnesota | 10 | 10 | |
Mississippi | 6 | 6 | |
Missouri | 10 | 10 | |
Montana | 3 | 3 | |
Nebraska | 5 | 5 | |
Nevada | 6 | 6 | |
New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | |
New Jersey | 14 | 14 | |
New Mexico | 5 | 5 | |
New York | 29 | 29 | |
North Carolina | 15 | 15 | |
North Dakota | 3 | 3 | |
Ohio | 18 | 18 | |
Oklahoma | 7 | 7 | |
Oregon | 7 | 7 | |
Pennsylvania | 20 | 20 | |
Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | |
South Carolina | 9 | 9 | |
South Dakota | 3 | 3 | |
Tennessee | 11 | 11 | |
Texas | 38 | 38 | |
Utah | 6 | 6 | |
Vermont | 3 | 3 | |
Virginia | 13 | 13 | |
Washington | 12 | 12 | |
West Virginia | 5 | 5 | |
Wisconsin | 10 | 10 | |
Wyoming | 3 | 3 | |
Washington, D.C. | 3 | 3 | |
Total electors | 538 | 275 | 263 |
Romney needs 270 to win. This assumes the following:
Obama wins tossup states Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. He may not: New Hampshire and Iowa could easily swing over to Romney. Indeed, the only certain Obama pick up right now is Michigan: even Pennsylvania might have already tipped into the Romney camp. Stand by.
Romney wins tossup states Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. Ohio is still quite close, but a lot of local polls not reaching the national stage are showing increased support for Romney: he might not only have won Ohio, but may even be distancing.
Some models we have done have Romney already over the 315 vote mark. And our neighbor Borepatch has Romney at 346 with some reasonable guesswork.
We will keep an eye on this.
