Best Laid Plans

This is going to be a bit of a gripe. Now, you know, the Czar isn't one to complain, but about fifteen minutes ago, his mouse stopped working. Just died, cold.

So the Czar unplugged it, and plugged it back in. No luck: dead as a doornail. So the Czar went to the other computer, grabbed the mouse off there, and plugged it in. Nothing.

All right. Welcome to Windows 7. So we restarted, went through the circus that is a Windows computer restarting, and waited. And waited. And waited. And we came back up...to a dead mouse.

We have been here before, back in the Vista days. You restart again. And we waited. And waited. And indeed, we came back up and the mouse was working again.

And no sooner than the Czar touches the mouse, a nasty message pops up that no mouse software has been installed, and we need to install it now. Now! So we install it. And wait. And wait. And we finally see the little green bar hit 100%, and pow. Installation failed. Why? Because a newer version of the mouse software is already installed.

Would we like to update to the latest version to prevent this from happening again? Indeed, we would, should that prove possible. And so we go through the Windows Update routine. And wait. And wait. And pow. Installation failed. Why? Because the driver is already in use. Would I like to reinstall?

No thanks. Wow. Really digging the Windows 7 experience. It cured most of the Vista headaches, but let us hope this is not a sign of weirder stuff to come.

Untimely Public Service Announcement

Sorry, we are a bit backed up here at the Castle.

Cutting It Close

For a second, the Czar got excited there when he spottted the headline “Obama Dispatches Geithner, Lew to Negotiate on Tax Cuts.”

Ah, they mean the President ordered the two on a special assignment. See, when the Czar dispatches somebody, it involves an axe and about seven cervical vertebrae.

But you have to admit, if you are going to negotiate, immediately beheading two of your own guys is a hell of an attention getter.

Mailbag

First from our Royal Surgeon:

"The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers," Princess Leia.

Your GorTness:

Great post on how if the 'rich suffer' then everyone suffers.

The Gormos are well acquainted with my supply side leanings,and by leanings, I mean sheer cliff face.

One of the things we have learned from Dr. J-man-crush Art Laffer, is that tax increases do not equate with long-term increases in revenues. Today, economist Veronica Rugy (the Princess Leia of economics) shows us this comparing taxes, 50 year average taxation and top-marginal tax rates. What it shows is that other than some wiggle in the line, you can't get revenue above 20% of GDP independent of tax rate.

What will increase revenue is a bigger real GDP (since that 19% number appears pretty darn static). The only way to do this is through economic growth. The only way to do this is through smart tax policy.

Dr. J, one of the evil rich, will have to cut charitable giving and make other 'rational economic decisions' (aka tightening the belt) should we be forced to suffer through the Obama Tax Hike of 2011(R). A consequence of the Obama Tax Hike of 2011(R) will be that Dr. J will go out to eat less, will go on fewer vacations, and otherwise spend less money in the pursuit of entertaining himself and his family. While this will not be too much of a bummer for Clan Dr. J, it will be a bummer from the recipients of Dr. J's largess.

Hopefully the Congress will do the right thing and extend the current tax rates long term. I don't think a 3 year extension will have as much of a stimulatory effect. Perhaps some of the Czar's man-crush's spending cuts can be done along with the tax rate extension.

Warmest Regards,

Dr. J.
Royal Surgeon to the Gormogons

Nice job! While the freeze on civilian federal worker's pay is a step in controlling this government's cost - the cost savings amount to somewhere in the neighborhood of $2B which is a drop in the bucket of the national debt. It will be interesting to see how this fares, particularly with the increased demands on the I.R.S. for monitoring all the 1099s we'll have to file due to ObamaCare (by the way, do you think Nancy Pelosi is really put out that we're not calling it PelosiCare when Obama dumped it on her?)

On the lighter side, Operative JS writes in:

Dear dangerous and excellious (a new word I made up for you) GorT,

Thank you for the post about Lady Gaga and Kim Kardashian. I think you may have mixed up your news service with The Onion, for surely no one would be so self-centered and out of touch with reality that they think giving up on a day of tweeting would mean diddly to anyone. Shirley it must be so!

God Bless,
Gormogon Operative JS

Excellious? I'll take it - maybe I can use it on Friday "Game night" at the Castle. The Volgi and 'Puter are pretty good at Balderdash® maybe they'll buy this one.  And nice Leslie Nielsen reference.

Please?

First, let's be clear, I'm not advocating the demise of any person here but when I came across this tidbit on the news (courtesy of MTV):

If you see headlines this Wednesday about Lady Gaga and Kim Kardashian giving up on social media, don't be alarmed. [T]hey're participating in a stunt to promote World AIDS Day in which they will kill off their cyberselves for one day as part of a Digital Life Sacrifice.

I thought to myself, can they make the "deaths" of their online presence permanent? AIDS is terrible and I appreciate an effort to raise charity to fight it, but I don't think we need their "cyberselves".

Leslie Nielsen, R.I.P. Police Squad! funniest show ever?

Thanks, Katō!

Leslie Nielsen, RIP

The Volgi just let me know that actor Leslie Nielsen has passed away at the age of 84.

For once, don’t you know, the Czar is truly shocked. His money was on Gene Hackman.

And let it be said, our own Mandarin remembers Mr. Nielsen not as a silly actor of satirical films, but as a leading action star. What? Truth. Indeed, the Mandarin will quickly cite Forbidden Planet as one of his favorites, in which Leslie Nielsen played CDR J.J. Adams—ironically, a role many people fear would typecast him as a decisive, military hero-like character.

Yeah, people forget that about him.

The Rich Can Afford It, Right?

This debate continues to rage on, particularly in Washington, and sometimes in social circles where people of various political leanings mingle.  Eventually, one will toss out a statement much like the title of this post, "Well, the rich can afford to have their taxes raised a bit".  Really?  How much research did they do - likely, very little.  I'd wager that the the "research" involved considering the amount of money the "rich" are earning ($200-250K and up per year) and compared that to what they make or what they think the average American makes (roughly $46K for single earner and $67K for a dual earner household).  In a rare case, they might actually know the difference in the tax rate that would be imposed (+3% for $250-373K, and +4.6% on $373K and up) and did a calculation that would "only" add $7,500 to someone at $250K and $17,158 to the $373K earning level.  But that is probably where the analysis stopped.

Let's take this analysis a bit farther.  This leaves out the impact of local and state tax changes that sometimes are based off of the net federal taxes owed.  While significant, we'll pass over those for now.  First let's consider a typical household cash flow.  Through income (jobs and investments) the cash comes in and the outlays go into one of four categories: spending (both mandatory and discretionary), charity, investment and taxes.  Given that the income is rather fixed, if the amount applied towards one category is increased, one or more of the other categories will be decreased.  So with taxes going up at least $7-17,000, we can expect a net reduction of somewhere in the $7-17,000 range (at the low end, remember) in one or more of the spending, charity and investment categories. 

A reduction in charity is the easy case - less money flows to those organizations that work to help the less fortunate.  These organizations rely heavily upon donations to accomplish their mission.  So when the local food bank runs low, or a hurricane relief program can't support as much as it could in the past, one reason will be the increased tax.  Households in these income ranges give an average of 3.1% to charity which equates roughly to the amount of the tax increase.

A reduction in investment is more indirect but has a broader impact.  Less money applied to the economy means less economic growth and less capital for those companies invested in to create new products and services and therefore jobs.  The economy is not a zero sum game, but this increase that will hit over 4 million Americans, will cause some to reduce their investments.  This will impact job growth and therefore reducing the potential for new jobs in the lower income levels.

A reduction in spending could be more involved so we'll try to keep this simple.  "Mandatory" spending, as I define it here, are those bills that you need to pay: mortgage, electricity, water, etc. While not the primary target of a reduction as a result of increased taxes, it could be through the sale of the house and relocation.  Smaller house or one in a lower cost of living area, means a reduction of income to the local government (property taxes) which is not what the goal of raising taxes is aimed at accomplishing.  The discretionary spending is much like the investment category.  Less eating out, less frivolous spending for consumer goods, less entertainment purchases and less travel will directly impact these industries and those that work in it.  Studies have shown that the top 3% of income earners constitute over 25% of discretionary spending in this country.  A reduction in travel will mean a reduction in flights, hotels, etc. which will mean a reduction in the staff needed.  A reduction in staff (layoffs) means fewer people earning income that is taxed and therefore a reduction to the income to the government.

So in the end, it is short sighted, and somewhat uneducated, to make the simple statement that the administration should not extend the tax cuts for all income levels because the rich can afford an increase.  So the next time you are at one of these social situations and one person drops this statement, politely ask why they think that.  I doubt you'll get as in depth analysis as this simple post.  I think you can afford that.

We Always Had Our Suspicions

The Czar is inclined to agree with FotG Claire Berlinski that it does not matter whether the mainstream media acknowledges that Portland teenager Mohamed Osman Mohamud is a Muslim terrorist, because anybody more than two seconds into the story can figure this out for themselves.

No, what has the Czar most concerned with this story is the following comment from The LA Times:

The FBI later recovered...three articles, including one titled "Getting in shape without weights." It seeks to introduce Pilates training to those preparing "physically for jihad."

Okay. So the next time the Czar tells you to avoid pilates advocates, you know why.

In fact, if up to now you were taking a Pilates course, the Czar urges you to storm up to the instructor, punch him in the mouth, and say “Traitor.” He’ll absolutely know why.

Hey, GorT…

…you’re supposed to put the kibosh on ideas like when the Mandarin says, “Let’s invest forty mil in a beachfront resort on Yŏnpyŏng-do.” ‘Club Yellow Sea,’ my 至聖 ass…

В Сибирь!

The Big Guy from Listen To Uncle Jay writes in:

“The peasants are revolting!” —Sir Rodney, The Wizard of Id, Parker & Hart


O Cruel and Vicious Czar,

By the Grace of God, Emperor and Autocrat of All the Russias, of Moscow, Kiev, Vladimir, Novgorod, Czar of Kazan, Czar of Astrakhan, Czar of Poland, Czar of Siberia, Czar of Tauric Chersonesos, Czar of Georgia, Lord of Pskov, and Grand Duke of Smolensk, Lithuania, Volhynia, Podolia, and Finland, Prince of Estonia, Livonia, Courland and Semigalia, Samogitia, Belostok, Karelia, Tver, Yugra, Perm, Vyatka, Bulgaria and other territories; Lord and Grand Duke of Nizhni Novgorod, Sovereign of Chernigov, Ryazan, Polotsk, Rostov, Yaroslavl, Beloozero, Udoria, Obdoria, Kondia, Vitebsk, Mstislavl, and all northern territories; Sovereign of Iveria, Kartalinia, and the Kabardinian lands and Armenian territories - hereditary Lord and Ruler of the Circassians and Mountain Princes and others; Lord of Turkestan, Heir of Norway, Duke of Schleswig-Holstein, Stormarn, Dithmarschen, Oldenburg Et Cetera, Ad Nauseam....

This lowly worm cannot understand why Your Unctuousness let this kind of drivel escape into the Interwebz....

No doubt you have some Higher (or perhaps Lower) Purpose, but a feeble mind such as my own cannot hope to understand it.



A complete history of the Soviet Union through the eyes of a worker.

Well... first things first.

1. Actually, it’s Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. Only the Czar of Muscovy, thanks so much second cousin Daniil. We got screwed over in 1283; didn’t even get Vitebsk. So while we might have enjoyed a nice slice of Perm, we got Muscovy. Not that we are bitter. Although we are. Quite bitter.



2. That out of the way, the Czar had nothing to do with the above video, although he enjoyed it very much. Great production values! Superb symbolism: they did their homework.



3. Volgi probably knows the guy who did it personally.

Close Call

The Czar was alarmed this morning when he had great difficulty walking downstairs to breakfast at his dacha in Muscovy. Was something broken? A neurological problem? He mentioned in passing to the Царица with some hesitation, because she tends to get upset over these things.

Good thing we did mention it. “Silly,” she said. “The reason you’re having difficulty walking is right there. Did you even look?” Sheepishly, we glanced down to discover that the Czar had, sometime during the night apparently, rammed his entire foot and lower leg down Harry Reid’s mouth.

That explains the colorful dream we had, too.

Word of the day

From Irish:

Flaithiúlacht, which means ruinous generosity, especially with someone else’s money.

Whither this gem? Andrew Stuttaford at the Corner. Click through to see where he got it.

How to pronounce that? Something like this.

Homeowner's Insurance: Paying For Incompetence

Checked your homeowner’s insurance lately?

A lot of people pay off their mortgage with property taxes and homeowner’s insurance rolled into a lump sum (“escrow”). Each month, they either write a check or use an auto-deduction to pay that off. And of those who do, most have probably failed to notice an up-tick in that monthly amount. In fact, the insurance industry is hoping you don’t.

Actually, the insurance industry has bigger plans for you. Even if you pay your homeowner’s insurance separately, once or twice a year, you will see the cost going up. But not right away for you—other folks will get hit first, but inevitably you will as well.

Brand new State Farm clients saw this first, assuming that new clients don’t know any better. In 2010, new State Farm homeowner’s insurance clients were socked with bigger premiums, in hopes that new homeowners would not realize the difference.

Next came the existing clientele. Based on where you live in the country, you can see a rate increase of about 4% to almost 9%. Some folks saw as much as 35% increases. The escrow customers were target first, because of course dividing the increase across 12 months is barely noticeable. But not to be constrained, the people who pay their premiums separately from their escrow are either seeing an increase or are about to in the new year. Many of your got a letter.

Of course, if you dislike this, you can simply switch your policies to Allstate. Allstate is more than happy to accept State Farm refugees, assuring them that they are not about to jack the insurance rates up. Of course, that is largely because Allstate ran up a rate increase between 28 - 34 percent themselves a while back.

And Farmers has filed for rate increases in many areas in the last few days. American Family Insurance raised their rates in 2009. Indeed, many other carriers have done so as far back as 2008.

Why? Well, your local agent will have an explanation. If you live in the Southeast, it was the hurricanes. If you live in the Midwest, it’s the hail damage. If you live elsewhere, you will get a different answer. And guess what? Those explanations are all bullshit.

No, the real reason is because the insurance companies lost a ton of money on bad investments between 2007 and 2008. As we know, the only “bad investments” in that period were mortgage-backed securities. A lot of them did. AIG went down in flames, but State Farm, Allstate, Travelers (who underwrites Geico’s policies), Liberty Mutual, MetLife, Lincoln National, Genworth, Aegon, CNA and The Hartford also suffered badly.

When you write a check to your insurance company for your premium, monthly, biannually, or annually, the insurance company does what most financial companies do: they invest it. Hell, your insurance company would fail if it ran itself the way banks pretend to do when they explain finance to grade-school kids: we will put aside your money, and if you ever need it, we pay you back. No, they do what everybody does: they ram it into the stock market, and hope that their returns on investment wildly exceed the claims you file when you blow your house up trying to power fifteen Christmas trees off a single 10 amp circuit.

Unfortunately, as we recall, nearly everyone was dumping money into mortgage-backed securities in the mid-to-late 2000s, not realizing that these were based on, well, pretty much nothing. When the market dropped out there, the insurance companies, who were incompetently over-invested in what their internet-based MBA degrees assured them was free money, lost a massive amount of cash, well...it was time to find profit elsewhere.

Who pays? You do. Look for subtle or not-so-subtle cost increases. As we said, many of you should have seen this already. The rest of you will see it soon. Some of us got a letter, patiently explaining that due to some unforeseen meteorological event, premiums will be going up. Most of us did not receive anything, in hopes you just don’t notice.

So what can you do?

Potentially, the wrong thing to do is to jump to another company. Run those on-line insurance calculators (especially in the depressed real estate market): you won’t save very much, and the reality is that the new insurance company will raise your rates anyway. Instead, leverage the game.

• Consolidate your policies. Get your life, homeowner’s, auto, and personal property insurance under the same carrier. People who do this are seeing the lowest cost increases—single digits, even.


• Raise your deductibles on the policies that have them. If you are paying for a $250 deductible on your insurance, ask yourself if that’s the best you can do. Could you, in an emergency, afford a single $500 check to pay for repairs? If so, call your agent and ask for your deductible to be raised. This can dramatically lower your payments. If you can afford $1,000 per disaster, you can cut a quarter off your premiums.


• Are you over-covered? Review your policies (which few folks do), and decide whether you need X amount of coverage on Y. Agents throw in all sorts of interesting and creative coverage options into the mix, and maybe you do not need flood insurance if your condo unit is on the third floor. Call your agent, and find out how much it really would save you to drop it. A few bucks? Don’t bother. More than a few? Multiply it by ten years’ worth of payments.


• It sounds incredible, but a lot of people include specific items on their insurance policies that they no longer have. Do you list any items on your policy? Any jewelry, artwork, or other items that you insured that are long gone? Look over your policy and be really sure you don’t have legacy items costing you cash.


• Talk to your agent. Be point blank and tell him or her you are looking to slash costs. Many insurance agents participate in networks of other carriers that can get you lower premiums. The Czar, for example, discovered through his agent that a life insurance policy was much, much cheaper through a different company—and the agent was authorized to sell that policy. In fact, it was substantially less expensive to do so, and the agent set the whole thing up in a few days.


• Following from that, find out what discounts are available. The Czar saves a bundle because he has Tcho-Tchos wandering his property with automatic weapons. His insurance carrier gives him a 5% discount because of the added security. Find out which ones you qualify for. And don’t blame your agent: you’re supposed to know your own details; not him or her. If you don’t ask, you don’t get.

Look, it comes down to this. Most insurance companies today are run by boneheads: the guys who could not do your job, and went back to business school and got into middle management. They are running the companies into all sorts of obstacles. But the insurance industry was set up centuries ago by guys who knew what they were doing. You can still work the system the right way: all the old pieces are still in place. Use ‘em to your advantage. And remember: your agent doesn’t necessarily like those boneheads. He or she will level with you if you can save more money.

Happy Thanksgiving 2010

...from the Gormogons!


(from left to right, the Mandarin, GorTechie, the Œcumenical Volgi (id est, 孔夫子, The Notorious ŒV), the Czar of Muscovy, and Ghettoputer Gormogon. Taking the photo, and not in the picture, is Sleestak (one of the few things the idiot did right, although ‘Puter beat him mercilessly anyway); the house assistant Dat Ho is inside manning the Mandarin’s superlaser on the top of the castle. Click to enlarge.)

A short list of items each of us is thankful for:

The Mandarin is thankful for matches, his mastery of trans-stoichiometric geometry, applesauce, the Complete Guide to Dirty Tricks in Judo, and the new SR-71 he just received.

GorT is thankful for his Apple iPhone 82 (which now supports Flash), rotator cuffs, edible underwear, and Mumgriffe’s The Decline and Fall of the Timor Empire.

Volgi is thankful for yeti puppies, beard combs, his new Prince Albert simulator, six new diacritical marks previously undiscovered, and flannel sheets in winter.

The Czar is thankful for the size of his hands, a well-sharpened axe, tie-dye fedoras, a Bushmaster 5.56mm rifle, and that cute girl that takes his order at the beef place. Even though he knows it won’t go anywhere because she tends to not date guys who are (a) married and (b) about five centuries older than she is. And Jello eggs.

‘Puter is thankful for zebus, clean pants (especially in back), his new back (GorT put it in...and back in when it fell out when ‘Puter was drunk on Listerine and tried to do eighteen pull ups on a closet coat rod), football, flame throwers, and football (no, the other kind).

We hope your Thanksgiving is indeed wonderful, and remind you to give real thanks for all the good things you have received, all the bad things your family did not experience, and all the great things that were not yet taken away.

“An idiot’s guide to the public sector” (UK). Well done!

Nork Tunnels

The Volgi pointed us to this: it’s an amateur’s assessment of North Korean military options, and the Czar has gotta tell you, this thing is more detailed and well reasoned than some actual military SWOT documents he has seen. Our own okhrana can’t do anything this good, and they use Photoshop a lot to put celebrity heads on rude picture.s

Click here to see the assessment.

EC asked about tunnels. Wow.

Click here to see what we know about tunnels!

Great stuff. Certainly better than anything our current State Department can put out.

Czar's Mailbag Is Now Empty

The Czar is finally getting around to tackling a backlog of mail.

First up, BG writes in:

I read this and all I could think was, "Arghhh! The stupid! It burns!!!!!!!!!"

E.J. Dionne writes:

So on the one hand, we have to cut, cut, cut because fiscal catastrophe is looming. On the other, we have to make the problem worse by shoveling more money to the rich because...taking care of those with tidy incomes is contemporary conservatism's highest purpose.

So not raising taxes on someone is the same as "shoveling money" at him. I'm thinking if the Czar were to visit Mr. Dionne's desk at the Washington Post and decided to not take Mr. Dionne's wallet, Mr. Dionne would thank him for shoveling money at him.

If The Czar cares to pay such a visit (axe optional), I'll be happy to supply him with a Washington, DC metro fare card.

Yes, this touches on a sore subject of the Czar’s; namely, liberals tend to be incredibly ill-informed as to how the economy works, whether it be taxation, corporate revenues, personal income, stockholder dividends, and on and on. Perhaps it is because so few liberals actually ever ran or plan to run a business with employees.

BG is right on the nose when he points out the fallacy in the above quote. And the analogy is great.

What causes this is simple: folks like Dionne have no clue who or what a rich person is. To them, the Rich consist of this massive coalition of guys with monocles and top hats, lighting cigars with $50 bills. In other words, the Monopoly robber barons of the late 19th Century. And that is generally as far as many liberals’s economic sense goes.

The reality is that Rich generally consist of small business owners, who have their personal finances legally bound to their businesses: partnerships, LLCs, S-corps, and so on. If the business pulls in $350,000 in revenues, he or she has just pulled in $350,000 in income. Here, let us explain it like this. Here is the small business formula, greatly simplified so that even E.J. Dionne can understand it: [Gross revenues] - [Material costs] - [Payroll] - [Other expenses] = [Owner’s take home pay]. As all taxpayers know, here is the tax formula: [Gross revenues - legitimate deductions] = [Taxable income]. That means the small business owner basically gets taxed on his $350,000 gross revenues for the year, even if his actual take home pay is only $35,000.

No, don’t write in to correct this. The Czar knows this is greatly simplified. The point is twofold: first, the small business owner appears to be in a higher income tax bracket when his actual finances are not, and two, that when liberals say “Raise taxes on the rich!” they do not realize they are saying “Raise taxes on a guy who is actually a middle-class business owner.” The next time you stop in to your local restaurant for take-out food, realize the guy who owns that dump is “rich” according to where liberals want to set income levels.

Next up, MC writes in:

Dreadfully awful Czar,

Or is that "awfully dreadful"? Maybe it's both. Anyway....

I stumbled across this WSJ article today, here's a quote in particular I found interesting:

A more telling signal was that, based on the cost of insurance contracts, CMA Datavision listed both states (California and Illinois) in June among the 10 biggest government default risks in the world. Illinois was at greater risk of default than Iraq. Yet thanks to the BAB subsidy, Illinois was still able to borrow some $300 million in bonds by offering a 7.1% interest rate.

Perhaps Illinois should be bombed and invaded to lower its default risk.

Seriously, though, I had missed out on this little initiative by Obama to subsidize the debt crack habits of some states.

This didn’t get missed. By the time we got around to replying to this, the conservative world has lit up on (and against) rumors of state bailouts. The problems with bailing out states are many: ranging from strong Constitutionality concerns (the states would not be beholden to the Federal government on a whole new level) to financial (who is providing this money, when we cannot even bailout our Federal government).

The Czar expects this to be topic of outrage in the New Congress.

Third up, EC writes in:

Your Czarness:

Interesting point, among many interesting points that permeate your blog.

Working backwards, Obama clearly wanted to be President more than McCain did. (No disrespect meant by leaving off their honorifics: just saves time in this list.)

In 2004, Kerry clearly wanted it more than W did. Didn't overcome the power of the incumbency.

In 2000, Gore clearly wanted the job more than W did. (And hasn't really recovered from the loss yet.)

In 1996, Clinton clearly wanted the job more than Dole did: in fact, Fred Thompsonlike, Dole pretty much just stood up and waited to see what would happen.

In 1992, Clinton clearly wanted the job more than HW Bush did, perhaps because Bush had already learned that it was no picnic.

In 1988, I'm not sure either Bush or Dukakis had the requisite fire in the belly, but by a process of elimination, one of then had to win it.

In 1984, Reagan and Mondale both seemed to feel it was their duty to run and to keep it from the other guy.

In 1980, Reagan really wanted the job so he could reverse the malaise of Carter and Carter only wanted to hold on from spite, which he has continued to display pretty much non-stop ex-officio.

In 1976, no real fire from either side, which probably contributed toe the aforemetioned malaise.

In 1972, Nixon probably wanted it more than McGovern, simply because he was a combative so-and-so and McGovern, while a genuine war hero was too reticent to make anything of it. (Mr. Nixon was also a WWII vet, but I don't think he saw combat, although he was deployed and perfected his poker skills.)

In 1968, Nixon was not only combative but also hungry to overcome his years in the wilderness and Humphrey was tainted by being too close to LBJ.

In 1964, LBJ and Goldwater were probably both equally fervent, one to maintain his life in politics, the other to fundamentally change the American polity. One prevailed and look where that got us.

In 1964, JFK and Nixon were both pretty fervent also, but not equally skilled.

I think that's probably more examples than you will care to remember. In summary, those that wait for lightning to strike, usually don't make it past the primaries. This is probably a Bad Thing for the nation, but we don't seem to pick 'em that way anymore.

Of course as a Czar, you didn't have to run for office, only run faster than your family members, until you could get the drop on the.../ erc

Wow, these are really great examples. Readers may consider your list items a bit arguable, but hey—the original quote itself was arguable.

The question might be whether Reagan wanted the Presidency, or felt it was his duty to run. Nixon, Carter, and Clinton certainly wanted the position, and they were a bit disastrous for the office. Johnson, of course, did not seek the presidency (although there is debate he certainly would have, given time), and he was no picnic. Even so, you raise great points that duty versus desire is no real metric for anticipating who should run.

Fourth up, Dr. J. says writes in:

Dreaded Czar,

I was reading an article about (soon to be former) Speaker Pelosi's viscerally negative reaction to the imperfect Bowles-Cranston report on the debt. It discusses in particular the antipathy Democrats have to touching Social Security age and means requirements.

It all of a sudden hit me.

Speaker Pelosi is in her 70s.

She has a full time job.

Indeed, many old people can and do work.

Like Speaker Pelosi, Dr. J's mother is in her 8th decade of life and working a full time job. In a fit of irony, she invests her social security checks for her future. She has her calendar booked out until her 10th decade given her family history of longevity.

Dr. J has two practicing septugenarian colleagues and one semi-retired octagenarian colleague who gets kicked out of the house by his lovely bride every morning and is not allowed to return home until 5.

Dr. J believes that we should treasure and value our silver haired colleagues, as there is a tremendous amount that we can learn from them. Dr. J learns much about his craft from these folks who pioneered the field in the 60s, 70s and 80s.

When one thinks about it, there are about 44 Senators and about 99 Congressmen old enough to collect Social Security for whom being a pain in our necks is a full time job.

While they are demagoging the entitlement issues, a Gen X congressman who was in high school at the same time as the Gormogons and their Royal Physician is one of the only people in Washington with the courage to address the Ponzi Scheme head on. (Dr. J is referring to The Czar's man crush, Paul Ryan) [Czar’s note: ♥♥♥♥♥!].

Were it up to Dr. J, folks over, 55 or so get social security as promised, and those who work will unfortunately have to pay some continuously decreasing amount of social security tax over time to maintain solvency until the beneficiaries age out of the system. Dr. J learned the term 'age out of the system' from a scary progressive friend. Being a compassionate Royal Physician, Dr. J would leave some sort safety net for those who can't work and meet some sort of means test. Dr. J flys at 10,000 feet, so he can't be bothered with details. He has HR people for this sort of thing. But the esteemed Gormogons get the idea.

The upside for young people (those under, say, 55) is that they if they are permitted to contribute, pre-Tax, to the Thrift Savings Program that federal employees contribute to. Again, Dr. J will leave things like contribution caps and matching incentives to the politicians.

Congress would be their usual hypocritical selves if they say that their own retirement savings plan is a risky proposition. Dr. J expects nothing less from these weasels, however. They like to keep their jobs.

Best,
Dr. J.

A while back, the Czar was grousing about privatizing unemployment insurance. Easy methods to do this for retirement did not exist in the 1930s but exist by the thousands today. Why not phase out social security as suggested here? Readers?

By the way, the Czar works, and he is in his 75th decade.

Fifth up, EC rewrites in:

Your Czarness:

I have Korean in-laws of differing degrees of assimilation. Some explain the passivity of the South Korean government by the belief that the Norks have mines under portions of Seoul and are holding the city hostage. I am skeptical, but there have been extensive tunnel systems discovered under the DMZ, which probably inspired this rumor.

Interesting times. / erc

Yes, indeed, you are correct. This is a powerful urban myth (mythical in that no North Korean tunnels or mines have ever been found below Seoul, but many Seoul-in believe there exists strong probability of it), all based on the historical reality that at some point, the North experimented with deep tunnels under the DMZ. However, the North learned that tunnels were hard work, expensive, and—oh yeah—required more ventilation than they could silently provide.

The average South Korean is not necessarily passive, but more trusting that business must continue, even though annihilation is a 30-minute drive away. Shooting a couple hundred rockets into an island, losing a couple of soldiers, etc., is not unexpected when your country has been literally at war for 60 years.

Last up, JR writes in:

...regarding this story:

"I don't think about Sarah Palin," Obama told ABC's Barbara Walters in an interview set to air Friday.

Instead, he said he's focused on being "the best possible president," while he acknowledged Palin's lure.

Holy crap! You mean this is really the best he can do?

Well, the 2010 half-time speech doesn’t seem to have improved his A-game.

But let us be fair. Many of us hate working for a living.

Banging Away At the Big One

Before your local newspaper screws this up, the Czar thought he should try to explain a curious news item going around the scientific circles.

The story is that famous physicist Roger Penrose has described evidence that supports a controversial theory of universe inflation. This is big news in physics, but the net result for you is “but that’s it.” Before anybody gets excited, let us explain.

In modern cosmology, the basic premise is this: the universe started out as a single point. The entire mass of the universe was packed into one point, which made temperatures so hot that there was neither matter nor energy: in fact, there were no subatomic particles as we think of them today. Just “soup,” with zero entropy (because there is no energy to speak of, there is none to waste). This is inherently impossible to sustain, so the resulting mess blew up in a huge explosion. Big Bang, see? Over time, as the chunks flew apart like a bomb, they cooled down. Eventually, they cooled enough to where subatomic particles formed, and matter separated itself out from energy. In time, star-like things formed, blew up themselves, and created higher elements. These formed back into real stars, which got together into galaxies, and so on.

Today, we see that the universe is still expanding at a tremendous rate. Like shrapnel in a bomb, stuff continues to fly apart from each other. As it does, it gets harder to stuff to get together and form new stuff, like stars and planets. Over time, things will get very cool and dark. Stars will burn out, some of which will become black holes. As this happens, the black holes will suck in everything around them. In the end, the night skies will be largely black. Only a few stars will remain. In time, they will burn out. All that will be left will be black holes, pulling in whatever is left. Expansion will stop, of course, because there will be nothing left to expand.

Then gravity can take over: the black holes will suck everything up, except perhaps for a litle background microwave energy, and then begin slowly, slowly, slowly drifting toward each other. A couple will collide over here, creating a flash of energy—that will promptly be sucked up by the new merger or other black holes nearby. Over trillions of years, they will slowly drift back together, but moving faster and faster as they do. Eventually, they coalesce and pow—for a brief second, they attain a zero-entropy state, everything is packed back together, temperatures accelerate until normal matter breaks down, and blammo—another big bang.

You might think this is old news. But this premise, which is a terribly over-simplified subset of something called chaotic inflation theory, is different from the old cyclical universe idea. In the latter, the universe expands, contracts, expands, contracts, ad infinitum, each time the universe is created anew.

In the chaotic inflation theory, the universe never really goes away: in the former subset theory, there is still that background microwave radiation floating out there at the far reaches, so far away that the blackholes bang back together before this radiation gets sucked back in. And with each successive bang, more of this radiation gets released.

Interesting theory, if you can prove it. But Penrose released a paper recently that analyzes the cosmic microwave background radiation, and finds weird concentric rings around its edges. Like soapy water, if you let it settle, the bubbles move to the outside edges of the sink. Each splash of water in the middle puts another ring of bubbles, and so on. But what you notice is that the oldest bubbles are really, really tiny, and each sucessive ring has bubbles that get progressively bigger. And the microwave radiation we see shows something like that: as if a series of big bangs keep throwing more radiation out there. The oldest stuff is packed a little more near the outer edges; the newer stuff is a bit more spread out.

Penrose believes this is pretty solid evidence that this subset theory could be correct. Are there other explanation for this observation? Not yet, but inevitably, there will be. In a good theory (say like natural selection), you have lots and lots of evidence that begins to eliminate other explanations. In a weak theory (like intelligent design), most of your evidence can be explained by other theories. So Penrose’s theory just added in a critical piece of evidence—it does not mean other explanations will not follow, but the more evidence you do have, the better for your theory.

This seems mildly interesting to you, and it should because the idea is kinda neat: we might be seeing echoes of earlier cosmological explosions. However, you will be seeing headlines in your newspapers or on television that will say stuff like “Astronomers see evidence of universe before Big Bang,” or “Proof of universe before time began.”

No, not quite. One small subset idea of a larger theory has just produced an explanation for an unexpected discovery. That is, unfortunately, about it. Plus, it depends what you mean by before the Big Bang. In chaotic inflation theory proper, there are bangs happening all the time for various reasons; it is possible within that construct for you to figure out what happened before the bang that resulted in us. In other theories, it is less likely to know for sure. So let us sit back and wait for the math (and God, the math!) that will follow from all this.

More North Korean Crap

Crap, the Czar has a lot of email to respond to. He got some really good ones over the last two days, and he promises he will answer.

But what about this North Korean thing? To catch you up, because God knows DWTS is all the television news people want to talk about, North Korea fired artillery rounds into Yŏnbyŏng-myŏn, an island located right at the border of the two countries. This would be like Canada hitting San Juan Island, Washington..except, of course, Canada wouldn’t do that. The point is that this island is right on the border, and close enough to major cities to have folks concerned.

And it ought to: two South Korean soldiers were killed, and another dozen or more were wounded. South Koreans returned fire, but there is only hazy information as to whether they did anything. Your Czar’s okhrana says they did, but the North is denying it.

So what should we do? North Korea has fired rockets into residential areas legally occupied by South Koreans. Well, if Lebanon is the answer, we do nothing. In fact, the South Koreans responded correctly.

If we do anything, we have simply written up a script for North Korea to follow anytime it wants attention. In March, you recall, the North Koreans sank a South Korean warship and killed 46 sailors. That failed to get the desired effect. And so will this.

China of course wants nothing to do with North Korea, as you know. China do little more than express concern, if you define it as embarrassment. However, China is thoroughly curious to what the Obama administration’s response will be.

Which will be, and by rights ought to be, nothing except diplomatic condemnation. The event is an attempt to trigger a response from the United States. Screw them. They aren’t going to get one. Yet.

Crazy, Violent Tea Partiers!

At least that's what 'Puter's liberal friends all claim. You see, every single tea partier is an inbred, knuckle-dragging trogolodyte within an inch of resorting to utter, catastrophic violence to return America to the dark ages before President Clinton. Yet 'Puter's friends can point to no incident where a bona fide (i.e., not a leftie plant) tea partier has done anything violent.

Confidential note to 'Puter's liberal friends: stuff you disagree with does not equal violence.

What to make of this, then? It seems our friends on the left so deranged by Sarah Palin that they are willing to kill Bristol Palin to eradicate the looming Palin threat.

So, the next time you hear some soft-minded liberal droning on about non-existent tea party violence, ask him his opinion on whether he supports the execution of Bristol Palin, as his fellow travelers do.

Can’t stop laughing.

You know Confucius takes issues of war, peace, strategy, diplomacy, and so forth seriously. Maybe a little too seriously. Defeats and bad press for the U.S. depress him mightily. Still. He can’t stop laughing at this. We’ve apparently be negotiating with a Taliban commander—who’s not actually a Taliban commander, but an con man!

“It’s not him,” said a Western diplomat in Kabul intimately involved in the discussions. “And we gave him a lot of money.”

Wow. We probably gotta find that guy and kill him and/or his sponsors to keep up any kind of credibility over there, but… 我靠, that’s pretty awesome. Well played, bad guys.

History Calls Collect

Ah, history. Where would we be without ya?

The Czar thinks much of history. Today, he is thinking about a belief once shared by American politicians: the best presidents, the thought goes, neither seek the Presidency nor reject the call of history.

There are two ways to interpret that, both of which are correct: first, a good President tends to be drafted by popular demand, and doesn’t seek the job for personal gain. Second, never trust a politican who actually wants the job.

Chris Christie might do well to dwell on this.

Millionaire A$$holes

A gaggle of self-described patriotic millionaires are petitioning the government to raise taxes on all millionaires. Among these addle-pated high net worth individuals are well known hipster Moby and hippie Jerry Cohen (of Ben & Jerry's ice cream fame).

Moby and Jerry should shut the heck up. Spend your own money any damned way you want. Just don't assume you know better than someone else how to spend his money. If 'Puter were a millionaire, he'd kick your rear ends. Heck, 'Puter still may kick their rear ends because he hopes to be a millionaire someday soon.

In fact, 'Puter says to Messrs. Moby and Cohen, you first. There's nothing preventing Moby, Jerry, Senator John Kerry (D-MA)(who wants to raise your taxes, but won't pay the optional higher tax rate in Massachusetts) or the newly execrable Warren Buffett from opening up their check books and writing out a blank check to the United States Treasury. If it makes you feel better, go ahead and do it.

Arrogant, self-righteous, elitist jerks.

The "First President"

On November 22, 1783, John Hanson, died in his home state of Maryland. Who is John Hanson?

Well, three of your Gormogons grew up and nominally call Maryland their home state so I found this tidbit to be of interest.  Maryland is hardly mentioned during history classes covering the American Revolution.  However, Mr. John Hanson of Maryland does hold a hisotrical relevant position.

John Hanson was the self-educated son of farmers in Charles County, Maryland, a county to the east of the Potomac river due south of Washington, D.C.  which was founded in 1658.  His family had lived in Maryland for three generations.  John married Ms. Jane Contee, 16, in Maryland when he was 25. They had nine children, five of whom survived to adulthood - two died serving in the Continental Army, one of whom was killed in action at Fort Washington, New York, in November 1776.

John Hanson's political career began in 1757 with his election to the Maryland Colonial Assembly. He returned to represent Charles County again from 1758-1763, 1765, 1766 and 1768-1769. When the colonies' relationship with the British became strained, John Hanson took a seat in the revolutionary Annapolis Convention.  This body took control of the Maryland colony from the British in 1774 and renamed itself the Assembly of Freemen in 1776.  As an outspoken supporter of American independence, John Hanson pushed for Maryland's decision to back the colonists laying siege to British-controlled Bostonafter the battles of Lexington and Concord.

His political career grew when he was named to be a delegate from Maryland to the Continental Congress in 1779.  He was unanimously  president of Congress from 1781 to 1782, during which time the Articles of Confederation were finally ratified.  When these Articles were ratified on March 1, 1781, the Continental Congress became the "Congress of the Confederation" or the "United States in Congress Assembled."  So John Hanson, of Maryland, was the first president of that body and of the union or confederation of the 13 colonies.  This is a bit of a misnomer but something to consider.

Forgotten History: Part 11,387

It was a bitterly cold Christmas Eve when General George Washington stepped out of the freezing rime to view the Delaware River. He stared nervously down a long road, concerned with thoughts of British scouts rumored to be near Yardley. The cheer of having the men of Gates and Sullivan join his troops was altogether dimmed by the prospect of facing Howe’s redcoats in the morning.

Lt. Col. John Cadwalader stepped from the treeline, his boots snapping branches, and fog pouring like smoke from his nose and mouth. “General, have our fortunes improved for crossing the river?”

“Yes, in fact,” Washington said, “I dare think our salvation has come at last.” With that, Washington raised his arm at the oncoming flood of light. A bright yellow minivan pulled to a stop, brakes squeaking. “Summon the men at once,” ordered Washington. Cadwalader turned and bellowed for full assembly.

“Yeah, where you going?” asked the cabbie through the passenger window.

“Trenton. We have extra passengers,” said Washington.

“Yeah, that’s Jersey, pal, on the udder side of the river.”

Washington nodded and pulled open the side door. Cadwallader began hurrying the men into the van, urging them toward the rear seats.

“Whoa, whoa,” chided the cabbie. “How many guys you got there?”

Washington shrugged. “Six-thousand men, and artillery. Toward the back, Colonel, if you please.”

The cabbie cleared his throat with an exaggerated cough. “You gonna be able to pay for all this?”

Washington sighed. “All our funding comes from the Continental Congress. We can pay you in New Jersey, as I presently expect a dispatch from Boston.”

“Yeah, I’m gonna need to see the money first. Cash, if you don’t mind.”

Washington paused, his irritation growing. “Very well. John, the man wants his species. What have we got?” At once, Lt. Col. Cadwallader began whispering to Generals Gates and Sullivan. In turn, word was promptly passed up and down among the men. Washington turned to the driver. “About three-hundred fifty.”

“Okay, get in,” said the driver.

Washington, in a mix of embarrassment and frustration, advised, “Continental dollars.”

“Cash is king, my friend,” mused the driver. “Hey, wait, is that a dog?” The driver pointed to a large black Neapolitan mastiff that jumped into the van.

Suppressing his outrage, Gen. Horatio Gates growled a reply. “That, good sir, is Whisper, a gift from Ambrose Cullilly of the Plantations of Rhode Island, and he is as much of a member of this army as I am.”

“No dogs,” cried the driver, tapping a red on white sticker on his dashboard that said, not coincidentally, no dogs. “I don’t want that thing slobbering on anything a fare touches.”

“We’ll put down a blanket,” offered Washington, jerking his thumb toward an aide-de-camp who prompty produced a worn blanket from a satchel. “Can we get going?”

The driver grimaced and pushed a button above the rear view mirror. The side door whirred closed and latched with a thorough clunk. The cab began to drive forward.

”Nervous, or excited?” asked Washington to a grime-faced boy clutching a musket.

“Confident, sir,” said the boy with a smile.

The driver slowed to a stop and turned in his seat. “Hey, how old is that kid?”

“Thirteen,” said the boy.

The driver threw the transmission into park. “I ain’t taking that kid across state lines unless he’s got a parent or guardian with him.”

Washington’s patience was at an end, and he raised his voice in anger. “This is Private Samuel Dunham of the Massachusetts Dunhams, and he is essential to our campaign to kill the British.”

The side door of the van prompty popped and slide open. “Sorry, pal,” said the cab driver. “I don’t like the sound of this. I didn’t say nothing about the guns, or all the guys in back, but Jesus, I ain’t taking no kid into anudder state when you’re talking about killing people.”

“This is absurd,” bellowed Washington. “How are we to get to Trenton by morning? There won’t be another cab for hours.”

“Look, it ain’t my problem, buddy,” said the cabbie, “But you can grab a couple of boats down at McConkey’s.”

Within minutes, Washington and his men were at the frozen edge of the road, watching the red glow of the cab’s tail lights disappear to the North.

“Guess we’re taking the ferry,” said Washington to no one in particular.

Don't Forget Our Shameless Plugging!

Folks, don’t forget that you can explore our libraries down a little bit and to the left.

You can see the books we talk about here, and even make periodic references to. If you especially like, you can buy the book from Amazon with a couple of clicks. Oh, there are movies, there, too. Good ones. Better than you would think, at that.

And, you know, you don’t have to buy. But anything you do...well, it goes to feeding Barry, the Mandarin’s pet manticore. And he looks very hungry.

Anybody Catch This?

Notre Dame played Army at Yankee Stadium tonight. Good game.

Did anybody spot this during rehearsal before the game?

Oy! What a World.

Spielberg is a strange dude. He got bounced from the first Harry Potter movie because he could not find an English kid who could be a better Potter than Haley Joel Osment. Now, he can’t find an American who can play Abraham Lincoln, and opted for the English Daniel Day-Lewis

But let us be fair. He probably could not find a Hollywood liberal willing to play him accurately.

Biden Thinks Everything Is Intellectual

Perhaps the Czar is being unkind or unfair. Unfortunately, though, that is exactly what Czars (real ones away) can get away with.

So here we see Vice-President Biden figuring out exactly what went wrong for President Obama: the reason Obama is perceived as aloof and disconnected is simple. “I think what it is, he’s so brilliant. He is an intellectual.”

Evidently people are getting upset over this, and the Czar fails to see why. This is exactly the sort of thing Biden would say, because this is what he believes to be true. You can dispute that Obama is an intellectual (pretty handily, one thinks), but please remember that Biden is the type of guy that...well, he’s the type of guy that when it rains they have to put a little putty on the end of his nose for him to stare at, so that he doesn’t drown looking up to see what’s tapping him on the head. You could put one of those Dippy Birds next to him, and he’d be in awe of its intellectual prowess. If and when he manages to squeeze into the Oval Office, the President rapidly ushers him out with a “Grown ups talking, Joe,” and the Veep exits muttering “Man, that guy is smart.” So smart, in fact, that grown ups are always talking when he’s around.

Remember Dan Quayle? About once a season, he would make a dumb comment and the press would jump all over it, books would collect his non sequiturs for sale at Spencer’s, and television shows would mock him endlessly. Biden, on the other hand, makes these comments hourly, and everyone thinks it’s great fun.

Cali - that's all we can afford to spell

Nice take on the woes in California and the future of that state as compared to others. Joel Kotkin, nice job.

Caution: Mandarin at Work

We received this email in regards to airport screening:

Here's a solution to all of the controversy over the full-body scanners now being introduced at major airports.

What is needed is a reinforced booth that you can step into that will not X-ray you, but will detonate any explosive device that you may have on you. It would be a win-win for everyone - there would be none of this crap about racial profiling and this method would eliminate a long and expensive trial. Justice would be quick and swift. Case closed! This is so simple that it's brilliant.

I can see it now: you're in the airport terminal and you hear a muffled explosion. Shortly thereafter an announcement comes over the PA system, "Attention standby passengers, we now have a seat available on flight number..."

The Mandarin rushed to his lab shortly after reading this...stand by.

Yikes!

Tip to The Big Guy @ Uncle Jay.

Very disheartening update: Borepatch just notified the Czar (through official channels) of an alleged photograph with this very picture on a TSA computer screen, in what appears to be full view of airport patrons. Think this is funny? Or endemic to the whole problem?

Precedent President?

Unless you have been living on the moon (which is possible in our case), or have a job, or have basically anything better to do with your time—that should cover everybody—you have no doubt heard one of two stories:

• That George Soros has declared war on President Obama, calling him a non-fighter, and declaring that the Left will look “somewhere else” in 2012.


• The billionaire investor is disappointed with the last election, and wants Democrats to make stronger in-roads, like they did in 2008.

Yeah-huh.

Well, you could make a third argument, as Jonathan S. Tobin does over at Commentary Magazine. Tobin discounts (correctly, in our opinion) notions that Soros is going to take President Obama out of the race in 2012 as “Republican fantasy.” Mr. Tobin says that President Obama is far too popular and powerful to be crippled by party interests—that President Obama is the more powerful person here, and he’ll be calling the shots, thank you very much.

But little in politics is without precedent. While it may be unthinkable, the scenario is that a president can fall so far his party’s support that they just abandon him in favor of someone else. The money, the talent, even his own cabinet, begins to desert the incumbent and move toward someone else entirely—someone who better represents the direction the party wants to go. Imagine a president, facing re-election, whose own party has basically said you’re on your own: zero support, no friends, no counsel—and all this despite a pretty large fan base of people who could make you a viable candidate even in the worst of times. Unimaginable?

Ah, you already saw John Tyler’s picture.

Following up on Airport Screening

Well, it seems my post is generating some discussion.  First, let me be clear that the point was that I don't have issues with the body scanners.  The pat-downs and other debacles that the TSA have engaged in, I do.  Do the body scanners significantly improve detection? Well, not significantly, but it is slightly better than the existing magnetometers. Clearly there are better ways to do this and there are ways around existing (and future enhancements) no doubt.  My personal experience with the body scanner was positive.  Let me pull and address some highlights from emails.

First from Operative GD:

I think you made, if not the Czar's point exactly, a fine point for why all this TSA bru-ha-ha is nonsense. To quote you, "... balancing national security and safety with individual privacy..."

Yes, I didn't disagree with all of his points and much of it I agree with - hence one reason for the title of my original post. This balancing act is a hard thing for a country to do, especially the United States with the freedoms that we have and the target that we are.

Humbly I submit that armored cockpit doors and armed cockpit crew effectively eliminate the only "national security and safety" concern that I and most (travelers or not) have, that someone turns the plane into an effective cruise missile. Otherwise, the damage a terrorist could do is really equal to what they do at a below-average high-school football game, and we certainly aren't TSA'ing those up, are we? Life is risk... I am willing to accept the risk that McBadguy will be able to get fancy "no metal parts" bomb through a good magnetometer and decent (yes... "profiling") passenger screening in exchange for not feeling like I am breaking into a prison to fly in my own country.

Good points. However, I would posit that we have yet to implement "decent passenger screening" in this country. If I were to submit an idea for change for the airline process, it would be that all "political correctness" of profiling goes away. Those that fit a profile get more scrutiny. So, your grandmother or 2-year old doesn't. Swarthier individuals might. Those acting out of character for a regular airline traveler, you bet. There are people trained to do this. I would consider pulling many from retiring military members - they have had to quickly evaluate a situation.

It is an argument between risk versus cost (financial, ethical, privacy, convenience). In warfare (symmetrical or not), attempting the zero-defect game is a pointless.

Yep, and I think the "right to privacy" argument is a bit of a canard here. Right to decency, sure. No one (except 'Puter) wants to be groped. But GD is right - it really is a risk-cost evaluation.
From ERC:

In the case of an mid-air explosion under the current system, the airline still gets sued and the TSA pleads that they are immune as a government agency. Who has the greater incentive to prevent such an event? When something bad happens, the airline loses money and people, the TSA just gets a bigger budget.

Fair enough. I'm just not sure that making the airlines liable without some minimum standard that is regularly accredited/tested.  There probably is a good balance of public/private, cost/risk and other factors (privacy, security, speed, etc.) that we'll find, it's just going to be a rough road getting there.

Finally, we can just put this aside, because we're headed here and here. Trust me - I'm a time-traveling robot, I've been there.

Quiet, You. The USAF Has Something Cool.

The Czar is not certain what the author’s actual point is, but it can’t be a good one.

Wired’s David Axe is reporting on the remarkably interesting X-37B spaceplane, which the United States Air Force is currently testing. One of its more interesting abilities, whether or not it is an actual test, is to play cat and mouse with amateur astronomers. There is a fun rivalry going: amateur astronomers announce they have found the machine in orbit, upon which it promptly disappears. And the hunt is back on.

What else can the X-37B do? Well, a lot—but nobody knows for sure. And this seems to irritate Mr. Axe, who reports that the Union of Concerned Scientists objects to the USAF’s secrecy. Eric Sterner, from the Marshall Institute, mentions that this plane could theoretically do anything, include deploy weapons. Axe goes on to list other concerns: this plane could surveil or hack into other countries’ satellites, and do all sorts of mayhem.

Lacking in this article is any sense of balance: what is the USAF’s position on the plane? Well, there is some non sequitur in there about its ability to deploy various payloads. But that is about it.

So permit the Czar to answer: it is none of your fricking business. Tango sierra, as the USAF folks might say: tough excrement. Best line in the article, from Brain Weeden of the Secure World Foundation: “When another state, say Russia or China, uses their dual-use technology, the U.S. has the ability to determine that that was not a hostile act....But when the U.S. does it, in most cases no one else has information to independently verify what’s going on. That creates a problem.”

Uh, not for us, it doesn’t. Hey, two points to consider:

1. If Russia or China wants to meet or beat this radical new technology, they can get off their respective asses and put up their own spaceplane. Thank goodness the United States military can still be so far ahead on the innovation curve, given how much we have postponed new technologies and allowed other countries to catch up. The best weapon is one you never have to use: the spaceplane qualifies—unless of course we let these crybabies get their way, and the USAF has to divulge what this bird does and how it does it. Good lord, can’t the US be first in anything, anymore?


2. We need this thing. Already there are pretty solid suspicions that China has a fleet of satellites in orbit that can jam American GPS birds. If the US edges toward conflict against any Chinese interest (directly or indirectly), the Chinese can reposition their birds next to our GPS birds, and then scream out loud gibberish at the same frequencies as our birds—rending our GPS technology (military, industrial, and civilian) totally blind. Imagine the havoc. Unless of course, the USAF has some sort of...dunno, some sort of spaceplane, perhaps, that can warn us in advance and begin taking apart the hostile denial-of-service satellites?

What this really amounts to is this: Mr. Axe is pissed, because he clearly loves space technology, and the USAF has something radically advanced up there he cannot understand or get answers on.

What a nice position for the USAF to find itself in.

Riding the Fence on Airport Security

Not that this is shocking news to our regular followers, but sometimes the Gormogons disagree with each other. Airport Security is possibly a case in point. While I fully agree that the government runs little well and shouldn't be "in the business" of things outside of its Constitutional jurisdictions (i.e. national defense, legal system, etc.), I find the Czar's option of privatizing airport security problematic.

First, let's get past the radiation fear mongering that's going on with the body scanners. The body scanners use one of two methods: milliwave and backscatter. The milliwave uses low level radio waves that are non-ionizing and therefore safer than holding that cellphone to your head. The backscatter rays use weak X-rays that deliver about 10 microRems of radiation per scan. Your daily exposure, on average, is 70-90 times that and in a airplane at 30,000 ft. is considerably more. The National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement (NCRP) and the American College of Radiology (ACR) both agree that a traveler would need over 2,500 scans annually to reach what is classified as a Neglible Individual Dose. A better concern would be to the shielding not provided to airline passengers as the fly through the less-protected atmosphere at 30,000 ft. But we don't here much grumbling about that, so let's dispense with the "radiation" argument here and now. And I wonder, how many of these people are the ones to consider the virtual heart checks or virtual colonoscopies which use similar technology?

The remaining argument is one that we'll be dealing with for a long time. That is one of balancing national security and safety with individual privacy. This isn't a new argument. We do background checks, financial investigations, drug screenings, etc. to allow people into jobs and roles where either national security or broad public safety is of concern.

So, if we pursue the Czar's option of having airlines responsible and liable for security we open a few cans of worms - one of which is the increase in lawsuits which really chafes me. Imagine, Jan 1, 2012 comes with the new proposal in place and Acme Air decides to compete for revenue by going to simple metal scanners and relatively low-cost technicians running it. Now, we're back to the possibility for someone to use non-metalic explosive devices and possibly liquid ones (if they don't care so much about screening those too). Acme Air 123 is blown up mid air over some urban area with 300 people on board. 300 families, plus crew now sue Acme Air for some huge amount of money. Debris from the plane lands on a number of businesses and maybe injures or kills people on the ground. More lawsuits. Years and years of court time. The endless weighing of what monetary value does one put on lives. Will this happen? Maybe. One could take the same argument for the Motor Vehicle Administrations in the various states and privatize those - don't you think that a private company could do it better than the state governments? The missing element in my strawman (and I'm sure the Czar would agree) is that some base standard must be met and maybe some level of accreditation done. This still requires some sort of oversight (either governmental or private) conducted.

Fine, even with those in place, let's think about the logistics. Have you been to an airport recently? How much space is there for security? One of the issues is that the additional security has been crammed into space available. Now multiply that by the number of individual airlines at each airport. I'd wager, we'll run out of room quickly.

I actually don't have a problem with the body scanners - I've been through them twice (for the first and second time) within the last month. It was a quick and painless process. The guy in front of me didn't fully empty his pockets (as directed, moron) and was quickly checked over. Maybe the TSA could be outsourced as a whole - or in parts (regions of the country, airport by airport), but I think I'd rather fly knowing that a lot was done to try to make the flight safe. Current polls are running that over 75% are not opposed to the scanners.

該死! ’Puter’s been washing his pain pills down with turpentine again.

Fire up the jet, boys. We’re going to Akron.

Mailbag: More On Airport Security Privatization

And so the responses to the Czar’s airport security proposal keep coming in. EC is first with an appropriate attitude:

Your Czarness:

Yes! Right on!

Moreover:

Not that our government much cares, but where in the Constitution does the federal government have a mandate, an obligation or the authority to regulate access to a private conveyance?

“Let a thousand flowers bloom, let a thousand schools contend...” but we all know how that worked out.

Another great idea from the websiteum Gormogonium!

Eh, it all goes back to the FAA, who ran the airports to ensure there would be a national standard of safety. When it came time to provide airport security, the airlines didn’t want to eat the cost of doing it (a foolish mistake, as we described), and dumped it back on the airports to make a common checkpoint that could be used by all. Except, that was back in the day when only a couple thousand people flew each day. Now, the checkpoint is more of a chokepoint.

Meanwhile, JS also writes in with a question:

Dear Mister the Czar,

I liked your post on airport security. The main problem with it is that your solution means less government and the firing of a bunch of unionized workers (right?). That would be a disaster to many politicians. I like it, though.

Have you heard all of the people who want Israel's solution to our problem? I think it's dumb—it won't scale and tons of Americans would find their approach as intrusive or more intrusive than the current policies. I also think most of them haven't flown El Al.

Welp! I hope all the current terrible videos and stories about the TSA are outliers, because it looks horrible for them.

God Bless,

JS

A couple of questions here. First, less government? Yes, but we expect that to become the new expectation over the next 20 years. Heck, the few Democrats who survived 2010 are starting to cough up fiscally conservative platforms, and even the old guard Republicans just got their first butt-kick from the Tea Party. Easy prediction: not their last.

Second, we touched on the unions briefly. Allow the Czar to explain: unions hate hate hate change. Unless of course you point out there is more money to be made. Right now each airport has a couple hundred TSA workers or so, covering different shifts and holidays. Switch the Czar’s plan, and every airline is forced to hire hundreds and hundreds for the many airports they serve. Costs go down, but the taxpayers are off the hook. This means the unions can negotiate directly with different airlines to command better wages.

Fact is, this is an ideal example of how the unions can transform: go from a pointless, money-grabbing public sector service union to a bona fide trade union. Airport security is a specialized skill, whether the TSA understands this or not. Mostly not. Make it a trade union, and you suddenly have a career path for employees (apprentice, journeyman, master), experience-based training (imagine what the vets can teach the rookies), and faster adoption of labor-saving methods (yeah, we can process people faster if we try). Employees will be less likely to jump out after a year of public abuse, and will be able to learn some specialized tasks—going from carry-on checking to low level scanning of baggage to working IP-based access control and surveilliance software. You are more likely to endure the rude comments of Old Mrs. Salamander if you know in a few months you are moving on to something better.

Third, regarding El Al, that is a superb observation. In fact, with our humble solution, an airline can be free to try it. There, it will scale much better since it will be on an airline-by-airline basis. And if Americans do not like it, they fly another carrier...and that’s the end of that.

Also, you should listen to your Uncle Jay, who naturally agrees the Czar is correct. And if you want a simple explanation why TSA is such a woeful mess, Borepatch provides one in simple, operational concepts. Excellent.

More Guns on TV...

Your Mandarin has received yet another epistle regarding the posts Programming Note and Guns On TV from Gormogon operative and all around swell guy BG:

Honored Mandarin -

To believe that an irrational liberal (I know, redundant) will come to the rational conclusion that he must not gun down his TV because he opposes private gun ownership is, well, irrational.

That's why you can't reason with liberals: an idea that did not get into a person's head by force of reason can't be dislodged from it by force of reason.

Hence the liberals' mulish love of Obamanomics.

Operative GB, your Mandarin appreciates your insights into the liberal mind. Although most of us here at the castle think the liberal mind is more like that little puzzle we all played with as children where you had to get the three small BBs into the holes in the picture of a face. On a side note there is a belief by some - spoken of only in whispers - that the version of the game owned by the Czar consisted of a large tapestry which the Czar would manipulate to get the disembodied heads of his subjects into the holes.

Either way, thanks for taking the time out of your own television viewing to write in. And for your effort we will be sending you the home version of the Gormogon conspiracy game. You will not receive any tangible or intangible product or service, but that may actually be part of the conspiracy.

Bear Watch: Dead Woman Will Not Be Jailed

Thanks to Johnson’s Russia List, we confirm once again that the wheels of justice grind slow, but they grind exceeding fine. RIA Novosti tells us that “Russian prosecutors drop charges against businesswoman who died in custody.”
Vera Trifonova died in April 2010. What makes her case noteworthy is not that charges were dropped once she was dead, but that “new charges were brought against Trifonova in October, five months after her death.”

Writes Prof. David Stone over at The Russian Front.

Guns On TV....

Your Mandarin received this short communiqué from the royal surgeon regarding this post.

What's a liberal doing with a firearm?

Me thought'm lefty pale-face hate'm firestick.

Best,
Dr. J

Well Dr. J you have to remember that liberals/progressives operate under the do as I say, not as I do belief system. You are correct in that they don’t want you to own a gun, but that doesn’t mean that they want to be left defenseless. Apparently they just want to be left clueless.

Programming Note...

Your Mandarin is a strong opponent of censorship and has always been of the opinion that if you don’t like what is on television you should either change the channel or turn it off. Apparently, Mr. Steven Cowan decided that instead of choosing one of these options, it would be easier to shoot the television with his shotgun.

And what you ask would cause Mr. Cowan to blast away at the television? Well it stems from his disappointment and outrage that Bristol Palin had not been voted off of ABC’s program Dancing With The Stars. It is Mr. Cowan’s contention that the only reason Bristol was still on the show was because of her mother and not her dancing talent.

Now whether or not Bristol has remained on the show because of the fame/notoriety that her mother enjoys, or she has remained on the show because the audience members that vote for her feel some connection with her, there is no excuse for someone to take a shotgun to the television. Your Mandarin wonders what Bristol has done to this man to cause him to become so unhinged aside from being the daughter of Sarah Palin.

According to the news report, the authorities – whoever they may be – say that Mr. Cowan suffers from bipolar disorder. Your Mandarin really does believe that liberalism is mental disorder. Now if conservatives could use this as an example that liberals/progressives are mentally unstable and a menace to themselves and others, maybe we could have them all committed to a psychiatric facility for their own safety. I’m sure there is a provision somewhere in ObamaCare that would cover this.

Achtung! Ihre Papiere, bitte. Und jetzt die Busen.

By Oleg Volk. Via Boing Boing.

Requiescat in pace

The Gormogons are remiss in celebrating the life of Stephen J. Cannell who passed away on September 30, 2010.  Mr. Cannell worked hard (in his terms he strived for "over-performance") to advance in a rough industry that he was interested in from a young age.  He worked through his affliction with dyslexia and the loss of a son (in a strange accident where the son suffocated after a sand castle collapsed on him).  His career includes the following:

• 16 novels - a recent effort in his life
• Created or co-created over 40 Television shows
• Scripted over 450 episodes within those 40 shows
• Produced or Executive Produced over 1,500 episodes
• Multiple screen writing and associated awards

Your Gormogons grew up watching Cannell's shows (some where he wrote, directed, produced, created...) including: The A-Team, Hardcastle & McCormick, Silk Stalkings, The Greatest American Hero, Hunter, 21 Jump Street, Ironside, Tenspeed & Brown Shoe, Black Sheep Squadron, The Rockford Files, Riptide, Wiseguy, and many more.

His entertaining (even if campy or cheesy) shows will be missed - I recommend hitting up this Hulu link in remembrance.