Its significance cannot be overemphasized. In approaching this confrontation, Russia is effectively treating Japan — a G-8 nation, economic powerhouse, and U.S. ally — the way it treated Georgia in the months leading up to the 2008 invasion. The dispute is over tangible territory, and Russia is pressing its claims coincident with China’s confrontational campaign to the south. Unless the U.S. steps in to prevent the extortion of Japan, the Kan government in Tokyo is faced with a choice between evils. To gain the support of either Moscow or Beijing, Japan would — at the very least — have to cede effective control of the islands in question. In all likelihood, Japan might see both island chains occupied by the other claimants.You know how we could back the Japanese up? Sell them the F-22s they asked for. Otherwise, as the Volgi has remarked before, you don’t want a regional crisis escalating, because the Japanese can go nuclear in about fifteen minutes, and who the heck knows what’d happen with four ticked-off nuclear powers starting at each other over the Sea of Japan…
Japan’s other option is to assert its claims with military force. This is not infeasible if the Japanese choose their tactics carefully, but it would infuriate and galvanize Russia and China. Only one outcome can avert an onset of instability in the Far East: America enforcing Japan’s position that the disputes over the islands must be resolved peacefully and not through extortion. Uttering sympathetic bromides will not suffice in this case. China and Russia have already proved that they are prepared to breach the conditions of good-faith resolutions. Direct assertion of a U.S. security interest is the only thing that will work — and the U.S posture must not be subverted by Russia or China turning this issue into a perpetual bargaining chip in larger, unrelated negotiations.
This is a bad trend that will not right itself. Either Obama stops it before it gets started, or all our security problems are about to get much harder.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Contentions, J.E. Dyer puts up a bunch of links showing Russian attempts to bully Japan over the Kuril Islands, concluding: