Poti, the New Sebastopol?

'Puter thinks so. Russia's lease on the Ukrainian port of Sebastopol on the Black Sea is up in 2017. Ukraine and Russia are about as friendly as fire and gasoline. 'Puter's betting Ukraine finds a way to not renew the lease for Sebastopol without ending up occupied by Russia. Ukraine's got nine years to figure out a way, and Washinton's probably going to help them. Given that, the following seems of interest.

Now we see that Russia has hunkered down in Poti, Georgia's port on the Black Sea. 'Puter's betting that Russia's hedging its bets by finding itself another Black Sea port. Russia's going to claim that it needs to occupy the port as part of its self-declared peacekeeping role in South Ossetia. Keeping supply routes open, preventing the Georgian Navy from launching a pre-emptive strike on Russia's peacekeepers, the excuse doesn't matter. Of course, Russia will assure the West, it will respect Georgian autonomy. Just right up until the point Russia won't.

'Puter's usually wrong about this stuff. This time 'Puter really hopes he's wrong.